Odds Of Losing 14 Blackjack Hands In A Row

Health Spirit Forum - Member Profile Profile Page. User: Odds of losing consecutive blackjack hands, odds of winning blackjack with basic strategy, Title: New Member, About: Odds of losing consecutive blackjack hands. If you are dealt three consecutive hands, what is the chance that they will all lose, excluding ties? You have about a 14 percent chance of losing three hands in a row when you play blackjack. Most players probably guess 1 percent because they figure the chance of this. Blackjack Hand Calculator Introduction. This calculator will show you the best return for a blackjack hand. Select the rules and cards, then click the Calculate button. Instead, you want to know the probability of losing six or more hands in a row. We can easily sidestep that complication, if we simply say that you want to know the probability of losing the next six hands of blackjack. Finally, an answer? For a typical shoe game, a basic strategy player will win 43.3% of hands, lose 48.0%, and push the other 8.7%.

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Blackjack is one of the least volatile casino games because you have a 46.36% chance of winning any hand (not counting ties). Add in that you can double down and split hands in favorable situations, and you’re dealing with a near 50/50 proposition.

Nevertheless, blackjack can still be a streaky game. It’s not uncommon to win or lose 3-4 hands in a row.

Some players try to capitalize on winning streaks by increasing their bets, but they often use a randomized approach that involves betting whatever they feel like in the moment.

I’m going to discuss some different ways that you can take advantage of winning streaks through systematic approaches. I’ll also cover how you can turn losing streaks into profits.

But let’s first dive into what your chances are of experiencing both winning and losing streaks in blackjack.

Probabilities of Blackjack Winning and Losing Streaks

Most blackjack streaks last for 2 to 3 hands. This makes winning and losing runs that last for 4 or more hands an unlikely occurrence.

But, as the statistics show, you can never rule out anything in blackjack. The chances of a 9 hand winning streak are 0.1%, meaning this can happen 1 out of every 1,000 times in a nine hand stretch.

Here’s a look at the odds of both winning and losing streaks:

The stats support why blackjack streaks often occur within 2 or 3 hands. Any winning or losing run after this has less than a 10% chance of happening.

Can You Really Win More Money Based on Blackjack Streaks?

Before we get started on the methods that you can use to take advantage of blackjack streaks, I want to discuss if it’s feasible to increase profits during winning runs.

Before blackjack strategy became more prevalent thanks to the internet, many players simply thought that blind luck governed winning and losing streaks.

But streaks aren’t the result of some mysterious force working for or against you. Instead, this is merely statistics at work.

Mathematicians will tell you that a systematic approach during streaks won’t help you win any more money than if you keep flat betting. But there are certain factors that can cause a winning or losing streak.

One example includes an imperfect shuffle, which leaves clumps of high and low cards. And more high cards (a.k.a. aces through jacks) improves your chances of getting a natural blackjack.

The only problem is that it’s nearly impossible to predict when the deck hasn’t been shuffled thoroughly enough.

Whether or not you can take advantage of blackjack streaks with precision is debatable. But what you can count on is building on your winnings during a hot streak.

Likewise, with the right strategy, you can actually earn profits after a losing streak. And this is exactly what I’m going to cover in the upcoming sections.

Taking Advantage of Blackjack Winning Streaks

A great way to capitalize on blackjack winning streaks is by using a positive progression system. Positive progression strategies involve increasing your bets during hot streaks so that you can win even more money.

The best thing about these systems is that they don’t put your bankroll in danger. Instead, a positive progression system only calls on you to increase bets when you’re already winning.

Of course, the downside is that you can also blow your earnings because you’re betting more, but many blackjack players are willing to take this risk if it means turning marginal winnings into a huge profit.

You and I will cover some of these positive progression systems below. I’ll also discuss how you can use winning streaks to camouflage your card counting efforts.

Paroli System

The Paroli system is one of the easiest positive progression strategies to use. You begin by determining a fixed betting unit.

Ideally, this amount will be worth 2% to 5% of your bankroll. For example, if your bankroll is worth $500, you can use a $10 betting unit.

The Paroli works by doubling your betting unit after every win. You then stop after three wins and return to the original stake.

Some players like going to 4-5 wins before returning to the original bet, but this is risky because we already covered that your chances of winning four straight hands are less than 10%.

Here’s an example on using the Paroli for a three win sequence:

• You bet $10 and win.
• You bet $20 and win.
• You bet $40 and win.
• You return to the original $10 bet.

The nice thing about the Paroli system is that you win more during hot streaks without being too risky. The trouble, though, is that you only have a 10.6% chance of winning a three hand sequence.

1 3 2 6 System

The 1 3 2 6 strategy isn’t as popular as the Paroli, but it’s still a simple positive progression strategy that can bring you big winnings.

This system begins with choosing a fixed betting unit. And just like with the Paroli, 2% to 5% of your bankroll is a good unit size.

Each number in the 1 3 2 6 system represents how many betting units you risk in the sequence. In other words, you bet one unit, followed by three units, two units, and six units.

You start a fresh sequence every time you lose a bet or win four straight wagers. Here’s an example of using this strategy:

• Your betting unit is $10.
• You bet $10 and win.
• You bet $30 and win.
• You bet $20 and win.
• You bet $60 and win.
• Return to a $10 bet.

The primary advantage of the 1 3 2 6 strategy is that you can book profits even if you don’t complete the sequence. The downside is that you’ll rarely win four blackjack hands in a row and reach the end of the betting string.

Reverse Labouchere

The reverse Labouchere system is one of the most complicated gambling strategies. But you should still be able to pick up this system within a few minutes.

The reverse Labouchere starts with creating a sequence of numbers. The numbers should add up to your desired profit for the betting string.

You then add the first and last number in the sequence to determine your next bet.

If you win the wager, you add the combined amount to the end of your sequence. After a loss, you cross off both numbers and continue to the next wager.

You start over with a new sequence whenever completing the number string. Here’s an example of using the reverse Labouchere:

• Your sequence is: 1 2 4 5 4 = $16 profit.
• Your first bet is $5 (1 + 4).
• You win, and your new string becomes: 1 2 4 5 4 5.
• Your next bet is $6 (1+ 5).
• You lose, and your new sequence becomes: 2 4 5 4.

The drawback to this strategy is that it normally takes a while to complete your betting sequence. But the upside is that you can win solid profits after completing the number string.

One Half Increase

The one half increase system is aptly named, because you increase your betting unit by one half after a two-hand winning streak. You continue this half unit increase for every subsequent win.

• Your unit size is $20.
• You win a $20 bet.
• You win a $20 bet.
• Your next wager becomes $30.
• You win the $30 bet.
• Your next wager becomes $40.
• You lose the $40 bet.
• Return to the original $20 wager.

The one half increase is my favorite positive progression system, because it allows you to capitalize on win streaks without risking the majority of your profits.

Card Counting Cover

One of the biggest challenges in card counting is making sure that the casino doesn’t know you’re a counter. Trying to take advantage of winning streaks is a good way to accomplish this goal.

This is especially the case when it’s early in a shoe hands and there isn’t much deck penetration. If the dealer or pit boss notices you increasing bets at this point, they’ll think that you’re just a regular player who’s looking for more wins during a hot streak.

Let’s contrast this to a card counter who flat bets while winning 3-4 hands in a row. This becomes suspicious when you suddenly increase your bet by wide margins later in the shoe.

A good time to boost your bets during a winning streak is when the true count is at 0 or +1.

These are points when a normal card counter flat bets. But again, increasing your wagers at this point makes it look like you’re simply a progressive better.

Of course, you should avoid spreading your bets too high in these cases, because you don’t have a mathematical advantage. But wagering an extra unit can help you with camouflaging when you’re taking heat from the pit boss.

Taking Advantage of Blackjack Losing Streaks

Taking advantage of a losing streak sounds like an oxymoron. After all, how is it possible to gain any advantage from losing in blackjack?

But you actually can swing things in your favor with the right negative progression systems. A negative progression strategy calls on you to bet more when you’re losing.

This is extremely risky because you can pile up more losses during a cold streak. However, you can also win back all of your losses and book a profit when things go your way.

Below I’ll cover a few different negative progression systems along with how these strategies can camouflage card counting.

Martingale

The Martingale is easy to use because the only requirement involves doubling bets after every loss.

You start off by wagering the table minimum. You double this amount every time you lose, and return to the table minimum after any win.

• You bet $5 and lose (bankroll at -5).
• You bet $10 and lose (bankroll at -15).
• You bet $20 and lose (bankroll at -35).
• You bet $40 and lose (bankroll at -75).
• You bet $80 and lose (bankroll at -155).
• You bet $160 and lose (bankroll at -315).
• You bet $320 and win (bankroll at +5).

The upside is that this system actually gives you an advantage in theory. As long as you always win to end a losing streak, you’ll earn back your losses plus a small profit.

The major downside is that you can lose your entire bankroll during long losing runs. Another problem is that you’ll eventually hit the table betting limit if you lose enough hands.

This is why I suggest finding tables with a low minimum bet and generous max wager if you’re going to use the Martingale.

Oscar’s Grind

Oscar’s Grind is a fairly complicated strategy that involves increasing your bets following a losing streak.

You start out by choosing a unit size, such as $10 or $20. You then wager one unit until you run into a losing streak.

As soon as your losing streak ends, you increase your bet size by one unit. This continues until you’ve earned a one-unit profit.

At this point, you return to betting a single unit until the next losing streak occurs. Here’s an example of how Oscar’s Grind works:

• You bet 1 unit ($10) and lose – Bet stays the same (bankroll at -1)
• You bet 1 unit and lose – Bet stays the same (bankroll at -2)
• You bet 1 unit and lose – Bet stays the same (bankroll at -3)
• You bet 1 unit and lose – Bet stays the same (bankroll at -4)
• You bet 1 unit and win – Next bet is 2 units (bankroll at -3)

• You bet 2 units and lose – Bet stays the same (bankroll at -5)
• You bet 2 units and lose – Bet stays the same (bankroll at -7)
• You bet 2 units and win – Next bet is 3 units (bankroll at -5)
• You bet 3 units and win – Bet stays the same (bankroll at -2).
• You bet 3 units and win – Next bet is 1 unit (bankroll at +1).

My favorite thing about Oscar’s Grind is that you don’t have to risk much money after a losing streak. This allows you to win back your money in a more conservative manner.

The drawback is that some blackjack players won’t be happy with how slowly this system works.

Labouchere

Earlier I covered how the reverse Labouchere works, and the regular Labouchere has the same structure, only in a negative progression format.

This strategy begins by creating a number string that represents your bet amounts. The sequence can be however long you’d like, but I suggest keeping it to 5 to 8 numbers.

The next step is to make your first bet by combining the first and last numbers.

You cross both numbers off after a win and continue to the next wager. Following a loss, you add the combined bet to the end of the sequence.

• Your number sequence is: 1 4 6 3 4 7.
• Your first bet is $8.
• You lose, and your new string becomes: 1 4 6 3 4 7 8.
• Your next bet is $9.
• You win, and your new string becomes: 4 6 3 4 7.

The good thing about this system is that it’s less risky than the Martingale, but you still carry a fair amount of risk because it takes a while to complete each number string.

Card Counting Cover

Negative progression betting systems are another way that you can hide your card counting efforts.

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When the true count is at 0 or +1, you increase your units to make it seem like you’re temporarily using a negative progression strategy.

And when the count is in your favor later in the shoe, it will merely appear that you’re using a positive progression system.

Negative progression strategies don’t work as well in camouflaging efforts. The reason why is because pit bosses may think it’s strange that you’re alternating between negative and positive systems.

But this is still better than increasing your bets later in the shoe during a very positive count, then flat betting at every other point.

Odds Of Losing 14 Blackjack Hands In A Row Chart

Return to Minimum Bet

Another way to handle blackjack losing streaks involves returning to the table minimum.

This doesn’t help you to take advantage of losing runs like the systems covered above. But if you’ve been wagering above the table minimum, decreasing your bet will limit losses during a downswing.

The important thing to realize here is that no gambling system can overcome the blackjack house edge. This is why it’s so risky to increase wagers when you’re losing.

By making the minimum bet, you can ride out losing streaks and eventually start betting big again when you’re winning.

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Conclusion

Betting more or less during streaks isn’t necessarily a foolproof way to beat blackjack, but betting strategies can at least help you take full advantage of winning and losing streaks.

This is especially the case during winning runs, where a positive progressive system really increases your profits. My favorite positive progression strategy is the one-half increase, but the Paroli, 1 3 2 6, and reverse Labouchere are also widely used.

Negative progression systems help you chase losses and eventually end up with a small profit, but you should be careful with these strategies because they add more risk to a losing situation.

Keep in mind that no betting system overcomes the blackjack house advantage. However, you can at least manipulate your short-term winnings and take advantage of winning/losing streaks with these strategies.

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If players’ priority is to win and to improve with every single blackjack game, then they need to put effort and time into achieving it. There are many other things that gamblers need to take into account and focus on prior to playing and during the game. To make the best possible decisions every time, players should prepare themselves beforehand.

For instance, it is recommended for them to have a look at every possible hand they can get and what their best choice will be in such cases. Knowing how to proceed in the difficult situations when players have a hand 14, 15, or 16 is crucial as the total value of any of the hands is significantly high which means that the chance of players busting increases.

Whenever players’ hand total value is above 14, they are already in an unfavourable situation. Such cases require a good strategy and it is necessary for gamblers to think them through beforehand. Preparation and knowledge are compulsory if one wants to make the best possible decision.

Of course, as already mentioned, several other factors play a crucial role such as money management, discipline, decent bankroll and not to forget a bit of luck. Whenever players have the chance to turn the tables in their favour, they should take full advantage of the situation.

Important Things To Consider When Having Hand 14, 15 or 16

When players are unfortunate enough to get a hand 14, 15, or 16, they need to be very careful and stick to the strategy they have chosen. These are situations in which players are already one step from going bust regardless of the dealer’s upcard. However, this doesn’t mean that they should ignore its value, players need to always bear in mind that it is necessary for them to make their moves based on the dealer’s upcard.

Also, how players proceed in such situations shows their level of competence and knowledge to the rest of the players on the table. Since gamblers are already in an unfavourable situation, winning the hand shouldn’t be their priority. Instead, they should try to make the best move which is the move that will leave them with the smallest possible amount of money loss.

These are some of the trickiest hands in blackjack and as such, they are frequently misplayed. Part of the confusion results from the discrepancies in strategy charts. The optimal playing decisions vary depending on many different factors. These include how many decks are in play at the table, whether or not the dealer must hit soft seventeen, and whether players have the chance to late surrender.

All of these factors must be taken into account before you grab a basic strategy chart to take with you at the blackjack tables. What is optimal for hard totals 14 through 16 in a single-deck game may no longer be correct in multiple-deck variations.

What are Breaking Hands

The term breaking hands is commonly used in blackjack which places it among the important phrases players need to get familiar with. Gamblers have a breaking hand when they get their first two cards and they total 12 or above. The reason for this is that almost every single card will cause players to go bust (i.e. break their hand) as their total value will go over 21. Also, it can be referred to the dealer’s position as ‘breaking’ if their upcard is a 2 through 6.

The trouble with the so-called breaking hands 12 through hard 17 is that they invariably lose in the long term against all upcards of the dealer, including those that have higher bust rates for the house. Hard 14, 15, and 16 are particularly tough to approach because they lose more frequently than they win over the long haul.

The result is that the player ultimately ends up in the red with these totals no matter what playing decision they make. You probably think that’s bad. It is, but it gets worse since you will end up receiving horrible stiff underdogs approximately 40% of the time you spend at the blackjack tables.

What is a player to do with these hard totals then? The answer is simple – trust in basic strategy and approach such underdog hands courageously by making the correct playing decisions. And by ‘correct’ we do not necessarily mean the ones that would secure a winning outcome.

The moves basic strategy recommends for these three hard hands are considered optimal because they reduce your negative expectation, i.e. you will end up losing less money with these stiffs over the long haul. In other words, you are on the defence rather than adopting an offensive approach. In some cases, the strategy plays help you escape a highly disadvantageous situation and increase your winning chances.

Breaking Hands’ Situations

As the name hints, breaking hands is the situation when either the player or the dealer is in a very weak position. Such cases are extremely hard to cope with and the only way to have a chance of not going bust is to follow the basic strategy. Breaking hands are the reason why so many people lose in the long run as well. Thus, if players manage to learn how to deal with them, they will significantly improve their performance at the table.

The bottom line is that once gamblers have such breaking hands, the chances that they will go bust and lose are very high. However, if they use basic strategy, they will be able to improve their hand once in a while.

The move hitting here plays a crucial role and players should take their time to observe when they should hit and when this task should be left to the dealer. In cases where players have a breaking hand and the dealer’s position is standing, then they should hit. Otherwise, they risk losing the hand.

When Players Have Hand 14, 15 or 16

It will be best to have a look at all of these cases at once where players have a hand totalling 14, 15, and 16 as the strategy that needs to be used is the same. It is worth mentioning that the same goes for the situations when players have a hard 13 against different combinations of the dealer’s upcard.

Let’s first elaborate on the recommended strategy plays for hard 14. These are the easiest to remember since there are no discrepancies in the strategy based on decks and dealer rules. Hard 14 is always a stand when the dealer exposes small cards 2 through 6. The player must hit their hard 14 against all other upcards, namely 7 through ace.

When dealt A-3, you have a soft 14. This is a much better situation to be in since it is impossible to break this hand with a one-card draw. You have an advantage against a dealer who starts with weak small cards 4 through 6.

In single-deck S17 blackjack, you must double on soft 14 versus the dealer’s 4, 5, and 6. When playing with two to eight decks, you should double on A-3 only when the dealer has a 5 or a 6 provided that the S17 dealer rule applies.

A pair of 7-7 also adds up to a total of 14. In shoe games, this pair must be split when the dealer has 2 through 7 and hit versus upcards 8 through ace. At single-deck tables, the pair should be surrendered against the dealer’s 10. The rest of the moves coincide with those for multi-deck blackjack.

The player is also in a tough spot when holding a hard 15. This is a bad hand, to begin with, no matter what value the dealer’s upcard is. However, things get trickier since the best plays are influenced by the dealer’s drawing rules and the number of decks.

We shall tackle the strategy differences in more depth in the surrender section of the article. Provided that late surrender is unavailable, you should stand on hard 15 against low-value cards 2 through 6 and hit versus 7 through ace. Undoubtedly, hitting a hard total of 15 is not the easiest decision to make at the blackjack table, especially against the dealer’s 10.

Nevertheless, it has to be done because it results in the lowest possible negative EV for the player. The main idea behind hitting 15 against a 10 is that it gives you a shot at improving your situation. The differences might appear negligible but in the long run, they are not.

Soft 15 (A-4) requires a different approach due to the flexibility the ace gives you. You should double down versus low cards 4 through 6 and hit against all other cards the dealer starts with.

The situation of the player worsens even more when they are dealt a hard 16, the worst total one could possibly obtain in blackjack. There are several ways to get this terrible hand including 8-8, Q-6, 9-7, and 3-5-8. The pair of 8-8 should be split against all dealer upcards in the vast majority of blackjack variations. We expand on the particulars of this pair further on in this guide.

The correct strategy moves for hard 16, assuming you cannot surrender are relatively easy to remember. You stand on 16 against 2 through 6 and hit versus 7 through ace. The same applies to multi-card totals that add up to 16, or at least if you follow total-dependent basic strategy. In the absence of late surrender, hitting is again more optimal because it gives you the chance to improve your total against the strong dealer.

Again, all three hands will end up losing over the course of thousands of rounds played. The optimal decision is the one that cuts down your long-term losses the most. The above moves are recommended under total-dependent strategy. If you want to take your game to the next level, you can switch to composition-dependent strategy.

The latter takes into account the exact composition of the cards your hand consists of. Composition-dependent strategy recommends you to stand on hard 16 versus a 10 when your hand contains three or more cards like K-3-3. Also, when the 16 results from splitting a pair, you should stand rather than hit under composition-dependent strategy.

The Option to Surrender

There is one alternative move players can make which leads to the least money losses. However, due to this fact many landbased casinos do not offer the option to surrender as they know that if players know when to take advantage of it, they can greatly benefit from it.

Many professional gamblers won’t play in a casino which doesn’t provide the option to surrender when playing blackjack. However, if players find themselves in such a situation and there is no surrender option, all they can do is act according to the above-mentioned strategy and hope for the best.

When this option is available, most casinos tend to offer late surrender. This allows players to give up on poor hands like hard 15 and hard 16 in exchange for half of their original wager. With late surrender, you can forfeit a bad hand after the dealer has checked for blackjack when starting with an ace or a ten-value card.

Late surrender is beneficial to players because it takes away around 0.07% from the house advantage. Most novice players are averse to surrendering as the name of the move itself evokes negative connotations. However, surrendering is a smart move when you are dealt negative-expectation hands like 15 or 16 versus strong dealer upcards like 10s and aces.

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As a general rule of thumb, surrendering is recommended whenever you receive a hand whose expectation of winning is less than 50%. The main advantage of surrendering is that it saves you money when you find yourself at a disadvantage. Late surrender is a defensive play which also allows advantage players to temper the effect variance has on their blackjack bankrolls.

The correct late surrender plays depend on deck number and the dealer’s fixed standing rules. In single-deck blackjack, surrender is recommended when you have hard 16 versus the dealer’s ace or 10.

Provided that the dealer hits soft 17, it is also recommended to surrender hard 15 against an ace. You should forfeit paired 7s against the dealer’s 10 in single-deck S17 blackjack. If one deck is in play and the dealer must hit soft 17, surrendering is advisable against tens and aces when you have 7-7.

In double-deck H17 games, surrender is advisable when you hold hard 15 and hard 16 against the dealer’s ace and 10. Paired 8s should also be surrendered against the ace in double-deck H17 blackjack.

As for shoe-dealt games, basic strategy suggests surrendering hard 16 against strong upcards such as 9, 10, and ace. The approach toward hard 15 in multi-deck variations depends on the dealer’s fixed rules for drawing and standing. You surrender the 15 against the dealer’s 10 in S17 variations and against the 10 and the ace in H17 multi-deck blackjack.

Hard 16 Consisting of Paired 8s

If you have read CasinoGuardian’s blackjack guide carefully so far, you probably remember that the rule of thumb of basic strategists is to always split pairs of 8-8 rather than forfeiting them despite the fact this is still a hard total of 16. Some gambling authors recommend surrendering the pair of 8s versus high dealer upcards like 10, K, Q, and J.

Regrettably, this is a major mistake, and here is why. The dealer undoubtedly has an advantage over you when you hold 8-8 versus a ten-value card. He or she would arrive at standing totals 17 through 21 77% of the time on average.

What adds insult to injury is that the dealer’s probability of busting when starting with a ten-value card is rather small at 23%. A pair of 8-8 will cost you money no matter how you approach it but splitting is recommended because it reduces your losses the most. With 8-8, you have a great opportunity to turn a terrible stiff 16 into two brand new hands starting with an 8 each. This improves your chances of forming a good hand and beating the dealer.

Assuming you play standard six-deck S17 blackjack where you can resplit to up to four hands and double down after you split, your 8-8 will lose against the dealer’s ten-value card 77 hands out of every one hundred hands and win 23 times out of every one hundred hands. However, your win rate improves to 38 hands out of every hundred rounds when you split your 8-8.

Let’s suppose you are flat betting £1 per hand for simplicity’s sake. If you merely hit the pair, you will lose £77 and win £23 every one hundred hands on average. This makes for an average net loss of £54 in the long run. Meanwhile, if you consistently split your 8-8 versus the dealer’s ten-value card, you will lose £62 and earn £38.

Your net losses drop to 2 x £24 = £48 per every one hundred hands in this case. This may not sound like a significant improvement but you are still losing £6 less compared to drawing or staying on your pair of 8-8. Meanwhile, if you choose to surrender this pair, as some gambling authors advocate, you will net losses of £50 per every one hundred rounds on average (you lose only half your original wager when surrendering).

Therefore, consistently surrendering your pair of 8s versus the dealer’s 10 turns out to be £2 more expensive than splitting over the long haul. At this point, it is pretty much obvious you are in a losing spot when holding 8-8 no matter how you decide to play it out.

The bottom line is you will save more money by splitting in the long run compared to surrendering or the other possible plays. The only consolation of blackjack players in such instances is that they have made the mathematically optimal decision when dealt a long-term loser like stiff 16.

You can compare the expectation of each basic strategy play with paired 8s and 7s against the dealer’s 10 upcard below. The calculations are courtesy of mathematician and gambling expert Michael Shackleford, known as the Wizard of Odds.

As with all rules, there are always exceptions, however. Paired 8s should always be split unless one is playing shoe games and double-deck blackjack where the dealer must hit soft 17. Under these playing conditions, the odds favour surrendering the pair of 8s rather than hitting when the dealer shows an ace.

Odds Of Losing 14 Blackjack Hands In A Row

Exceptions are also made for paired 7-7 in single-deck blackjack. When the dealer must stand on all 17s, you surrender the 7-7 against a 10. Provided that the dealer must hit soft 17, basic strategy recommends you to surrender this pair whenever you are up against a 10 and an ace.

Odds and Probabilities

Players need to know what their odds are in case they happen to have a total value of 14, 15, or 16 in their hand as this will help them make better decisions. The following odds are accurate proving that the game is played with more than one deck and that gamblers decide to hit. If they have a 14 hand, the chance that they will go bust is 46%, and if the total of their hand is 15 – 54%.

In cases when they get unfortunate and get a total of 16, their chances of going bust are 62%. The worse-case scenario is when players get 19 or 20 as this leaves them with more than 85% chance of going bust. The good news is basic strategists never draw to hard 19 and hard 20 so their chances of busting with these totals are practically nil. Logically, the higher the total of the cards in the players’ hand, the more they are likely to bust by taking a hit.

Conclusion

Having to deal with a 14, 15, or 16 hand is a big challenge which requires a lot of preparation and a good strategy and even then, players’ success is not guaranteed and they can only hope that the odds will be in their favour.

However, if they follow a strategy or choose the option to surrender, any of these choices will lead to the least amount of money they will lose. Once players find themselves in a bad situation, they should consider how to get out of it with minimal money losses instead of how to win the hand as in many cases this only pushes them to certain doom.